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Analysis of Latin American Steel Market in 2023

2023-12-04 14:33

According to the Latin American Iron and Steel Association (Alacero), as Latin America continues to recover slowly from the 10% decline in demand during the COVID-19 epidemic, steel consumption in Latin America will increase slightly by 1.1% to about 70 million tons in 2023. Due to slow GDP growth in the region, its steel demand growth is expected to lag behind the global average.

In April of this year, the World Steel Association predicted that although sustained inflation and high interest rates continue to affect global economic recovery, global steel consumption is expected to slightly increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 1.82 billion tons in 2023, mainly driven by the manufacturing industry. The Latin American Steel Association stated that a bright spot in the current growth of steel consumption in Latin America is Mexico, despite a slowdown in overall economic growth in the first quarter of this year, its manufacturing industry remains strong. The association believes that Mexico's growth is supported by "nearshore" support from the United States, and it is expected that US economic growth may continue. Mexican steel manufacturer Ternium announced in February this year that it plans to invest $2.2 billion to build a 2.6 million ton/year direct reduced iron based steelmaking plant in the northeastern state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, to produce slabs for the automotive industry starting from 2026. The Mexican Steel Association recently stated that although the country's crude steel production in March decreased by 6.1% year-on-year to 1.46 million tons, steel consumption in that month jumped to 2.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%.

In Brazil, about 50% of steel is used in the construction industry and 15% is used in the automotive industry, but sustained high interest rates have led to construction projects being put on hold. The Brazilian Association of Automobile Manufacturers recently stated that the country's light vehicle production in April was 178900 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9% and a month on month decrease of 19.4%. Some Brazilian steel mills have chosen to maintain their equipment during the current period of slowing demand, including Usiminas in Brazil, which has begun a major overhaul of its 2.3 million ton/year No. 3 blast furnace at its Ipatinga plant for a period of 110 days.

The Latin American Steel Association stated that the crude steel production in Latin America this year may be close to last year's 57 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of steel manufacturers is between 65% -70%, as has been the case in the past two years. The import volume of steel products in the region may continue to remain around 15 million tons per year, mainly from intra regional trade. Although most steel mills in Latin America are now mainly focused on selling to the domestic market, they are balancing domestic and export demand.

The Latin American Steel Association recently stated that sufficient renewable energy supply and natural resources make Latin America an attractive green steel production region. However, the region needs greater economic and political stability to attract a large amount of new investment.

Recent investments in foreign steel projects in Latin America include French seamless steel pipe manufacturer Vallourec transferring a pipe factory from Germany to Brazil, and ArcelorMittal continuing regional expansion by acquiring CSP steel plant in the state of Ceara, Brazil. But the Latin American Steel Association points out that the recent wavering between right-wing and left-wing political leadership in some Latin American countries may make international investors seeking institutional and tax stability uneasy.

The association believes that in the long run, the relatively high availability of renewable energy, abundant natural gas, and potential carbon capture projects in Latin America will help attract new investment in the steel and mining industries and reduce carbon emissions. According to relevant data, the average carbon emissions from producing 1 ton of steel in Latin America are 1.66 tons, lower than the global average of 1.89 tons and China's average of 2.17 tons. According to official data, about 80% of Brazil's electricity comes from renewable energy sources, especially hydroelectric power. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, and Chile are suitable for solar power generation and are replacing coal with natural gas. Galdo, a steel manufacturer headquartered in Brazil, Vale, a mining company, and ArcelorMittal have all established enterprises to develop wind and solar energy.

The Latin American Steel Association stated that all major steel manufacturers in Latin America have announced plans to reduce emissions by 20% -30% by 2030 and are increasing the use of scrap steel. However, crude steel produced through blast furnace routes still accounts for 75% -80% of the total crude steel production in the region, with a total crude steel production of 57 million tons in 2022.



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